Given how woefully stock and bond portfolios have performed over the past year or so, you may not have noticed that financial markets are floating high on optimism. Yet there is no other way to describe today’s investors, who since the autumn have increasingly bet that inflation, the world economy’s biggest problem, will fall away without much fuss. The result, many think, will be cuts in interest rates towards the end of 2023, which will help the world’s major economies—and most importantly America—avoid a recession. Investors are pricing stocks for a Goldilocks economy in which companies’ profits grow healthily while the cost of capital falls.

考慮到過去一年來股票和債券投資組合的糟糕表現，你可能沒注意到金融市場高漲的樂觀情緒。但沒有其他方式能描述當前的投資者，他們從去年秋天開始越來越相信，通貨膨脹這個世界經濟的最大難題將毫無懸念地消失。許多人認為，結果是2023年底前降息，有利于世界主要經濟體——最重要的是美國——避免陷入經濟衰退。投資者給股票定價是基于對“金發女孩經濟”的預期，即企業利潤穩健增長，資金成本下降。

In anticipation of this welcome turn of events the s&p 500 index of American stocks has risen by nearly 8% since the start of the year. Companies are valued at about 18 times their forward earnings—low by post-pandemic standards, but at the high end of the range that prevailed between 2002 and 2019. And in 2024 those earnings are expected to surge by almost 10%.

出于對形勢好轉的預期，自年初以來，美國股票的標準普爾500指數上漲了近8%。企業的預估市盈率約為18倍，盡管以后疫情時代的標準來看偏低，但處于2002-2019年主流范圍的較高水平，預計2024年股票收益上漲10%。

It is not just American markets that have jumped. European stocks have risen even more, thanks partly to a warm winter that has curbed energy prices. Money has poured into emerging economies, which are enjoying the twin blessings of China abandoning its zero-covid policy and a cheaper dollar, the result of expectations of looser monetary policy in America.

不只是美國股市上漲，歐洲股市的漲幅更大，部分原因是暖冬抑制了能源價格。資金大量涌入新興經濟體，他們正在享受中國廢除清零政策和美元貶值的雙重利好，后者是預期美國放寬貨幣政策的結果。
原創翻譯：龍騰網 http://www.minocquamortgage.com 轉載請注明出處


This is a rosy picture. Unfortunately, as we explain this week, it is probably misguided. The world’s battle with inflation is far from over. And that means markets could be in for a nasty correction.

這是一派繁榮景象?？上д缥覀冊诒局荜U述的，這可能是誤入歧途。世界與通貨膨脹的斗爭遠未結束，這意味著市場可能出現嚴重回調。

For a sign of what has got investors’ hopes up, look at America’s latest consumer-price figures, released on February 14th. They showed less inflation over the three months to January than at any time since the start of 2021. Many of the factors which first caused inflation to take off have dissipated. Global supply chains are no longer overwhelmed by surging demand for goods, nor disrupted by the pandemic. As demand for garden furniture and games consoles has cooled, goods prices are falling and there is a glut of microchips. The oil price is lower today than it was before Russia invaded Ukraine a year ago. The picture of falling inflation is repeated around the world: the headline rate is falling in 25 of the 36 mainly rich countries in the oecd.

要想知道是什么燃起了投資者的希望，看一下美國在2月14日公布的最新消費者價格數據，它們顯示在截至1月份的三個月里，通貨膨脹低于2021年初的任何時候。最初引發通貨膨脹的許多因素已經消失，全球供應鏈既沒有因為商品需求激增而不堪重負，也沒有因為疫情而中斷。庭院家具和游戲手柄的需求已經下降，商品價格正在下降，芯片供過于求。當前的石油價格比去年俄羅斯入侵烏克蘭之前還低。世界各地接連出現通脹率的下降：在經濟合作與發展組織的36個主要發達國家中，25個國家的整體通脹率都在下降。

Yet fluctuations in headline inflation often mask the underlying trend. Look into the details, and it is easy to see that the inflation problem is not fixed. America’s “core” prices, which exclude volatile food and energy, grew at an annualised pace of 4.6% over the past three months, and have started gently accelerating. The main source of inflation is now the services sector, which is more exposed to labour costs. In America, Britain, Canada and New Zealand wage growth is still much higher than is consistent with the 2% inflation targets of their respective central banks; pay growth is lower in the euro area, but rising in important economies such as Spain.

然而，整體通貨膨脹的波動通常掩蓋潛在的趨勢。從細節不難看出，通貨膨脹問題并未得到解決。過去三個月來，美國的“核心”物價（剔除動蕩的糧食和能源價格）以4.6%的速度增長，并開始緩慢加速?，F在通貨膨脹的主要源頭是服務業，受勞動力成本的影響較大。在美國、英國、加拿大、新西蘭，工資增長率仍然遠高于各自央行的2%通脹目標；歐元區的工資增幅下降，但西班牙等重要經濟體出現上漲。

That should not be a surprise, given the strength of labour markets. Six of the g7 group of big rich countries enjoy an unemployment rate at or close to the lowest seen this century. America’s is the lowest it has been since 1969. It is hard to see how underlying inflation can dissipate while labour markets stay so tight. They are keeping many economies on course for inflation that does not fall below 3-5% or so. That would be less scary than the experience of the past two years. But it would be a big problem for central bankers, who are judged against their targets. It would also blow a hole in investors’ optimistic vision.

考慮到勞動力市場的強勁，這并不令人意外。在“七大工業國組織”中，六個發達大國的失業率達到或接近本世紀的最低水平，美國失業率達到1969年以來的最低水平。在勞動力市場如此緊俏之際，很難看出潛在通貨膨脹有消失的跡象。這使許多經濟體的通脹率保持在不低于3-5%的水平，雖然不像過去兩年那么可怕，但對于各國央行來說是個大問題，因為市場根據通脹目標來評判它們，還會沉重打擊投資者的樂觀預期。

Whatever happens next, market turbulence seems likely. In recent weeks bond investors have begun moving towards a prediction that central banks do not cut interest rates, but instead keep them high. It is conceivable—just—that rates stay high without seriously denting the economy, while inflation continues to fall. If that happens, markets would be buoyed by robust economic growth. Yet persistently higher rates would inflict losses on bond investors, and continuing elevated risk-free returns would make it harder to justify stocks trading at a large multiple of their earnings.

無論接下來發生什么，市場動蕩都可能發生。最近幾個星期以來，債券投資者開始傾向于預測央行不會降息，而是讓利率保持在高位。這是有可能的——僅此而已——讓利率保持在高位而不嚴重損害經濟，同時通脹率繼續下降。在這種情況下，強勁的經濟增長將會提振市場。但是，利率持續保持在高位會使債券投資者遭受損失，無風險收益的持續走高更難以證明股票高市盈率的合理性。
原創翻譯：龍騰網 http://www.minocquamortgage.com 轉載請注明出處


It is far more likely, however, that high rates will hurt the economy. In the modern era central banks have been bad at pulling off “soft landings”, in which they complete a cycle of interest-rate rises without an ensuing recession. History is full of examples of investors wrongly anticipating strong growth towards the end of a bout of monetary tightening, only for a downturn to strike. That has been true even in conditions that are less inflationary than today’s. Were America the only economy to enter recession, much of the rest of the world would still be dragged down, especially if a flight to safety strengthened the dollar.

但是，高利率損害經濟的可能性更大?，F代央行不擅長實現“軟著陸”，即完成一個利率上升周期的同時避免陷入經濟衰退。這樣的歷史案例比比皆是，投資者誤判在貨幣緊縮即將結束之際會出現強勁的經濟增長，結果卻是經濟衰退。即使在通脹率比現在低的情況下，結果也是如此。如果只有美國陷入經濟衰退，那么世界上大多數國家仍然會受到拖累，尤其當安全投資轉移使美元走強時更是如此。

There is also the possibility that central banks, faced with a stubborn inflation problem, do not have the stomach to tolerate a recession. Instead, they might allow inflation to run a little above their targets. In the short run that would bring an economic sugar rush. It might also bring benefits in the longer run: eventually interest rates would settle higher on account of higher inflation, keeping them safely away from zero and giving central banks more monetary ammunition during the next recession. For this reason, many economists think the ideal inflation target is above 2%.

另一種可能是，面臨通脹頑疾的各國央行沒有勇氣忍受經濟衰退。相反，他們可能允許通脹率略高于目標。從短期來看，這能給經濟帶來提振作用，從長遠來看，可能也能帶來好處：最終高通脹率導致利率維持在較高水平，使利率安全地遠離零水平，使央行在下一次經濟衰退期間擁有更多的貨幣彈藥?；谶@個原因，許多經濟學家認為，理想的通脹率目標是2%以上。

Yet managing such a regime shift without wreaking havoc would be an enormous task for central banks. They have spent the past year emphasising their commitment to their current targets, often set by lawmakers. Ditching one regime and establishing another would be a once-in-a-generation policymaking challenge. Decisiveness would be key; in the 1970s a lack of clarity about the goals of monetary policy led to wild swings in the economy, hurting the public and investors alike.

但對于各國央行來說，完成這樣的制度轉變而不造成嚴重破壞是一項艱巨的任務。在過去一年里，他們強調對當前通脹目標的承諾，這些目標通常由立法者來制定。對制度進行破舊立新是千載難逢的決策挑戰，關鍵在于當機立斷；上世紀70年代，由于缺少明確的貨幣政策目標，結果導致經濟出現劇烈波動，使民眾和投資者都遭受了損害。

Back to Earth

回歸現實

So far central bankers in the rich world are showing no signs of reversing course. But even if inflation falls or they give up fighting it, policymakers are unlikely to execute a flawless pivot. Whether it is because rates stay high, recession strikes or policy enters a messy period of transition, investors have set themselves up for disappointment.

到目前為止，發達國家的央行尚未表現出政策轉向的跡象。但即使通脹率下降，或者央行放棄抑制通脹的斗爭，決策者們都不太可能實現完美的政策轉向。無論是由于利率處在高位、經濟衰退來襲、還是政策進入混亂的過渡期，勢必都會讓投資者感到失望。