If there is one thing that Americans of all political stripes can agree on, it is that the economy is broken. Donald Trump, who saw trade as a rip-off and his country in decline, came into office promising to make America great again. President Joe Biden is spending $2trn remaking the economy, hoping to build it back better. Americans are worried. Nearly four-fifths tell pollsters that their children will be worse off than they are, the most since the survey began in 1990, when only about two-fifths were as gloomy. The last time so many thought the economy was in such terrible shape, it was in the throes of the global financial crisis.

如果說有一件事情是所有政治派別的美國人都認同的，那就是美國經濟已經崩潰。唐納德·特朗普將貿易視為當冤大頭，他認為國家正在衰落，上臺時承諾要讓美國再次偉大。美國總統喬·拜登斥資2萬億美元來重建經濟，希望重建美好未來。美國人感到擔憂，民調顯示近五分之四的受訪者認為，子女將比他們過得更糟糕，這是自1990年開始這項調查以來人數最多的，當年只有五分之二的受訪者這么悲觀。上一次這么多人認為經濟狀況如此糟糕，還是在全球金融危機期間。
原創翻譯：龍騰網 http://www.minocquamortgage.com 轉載請注明出處


Yet the anxiety obscures a stunning success story—one of enduring but underappreciated outperformance. America remains the world’s richest, most productive and most innovative big economy. By an impressive number of measures, it is leaving its peers ever further in the dust.

然而，焦慮掩蓋了一個驚人的成功故事——長久被低估的卓越表現。美國仍然是世界上最富裕、生產力最高、最具創新力的經濟大國。從眾多令人贊嘆的指標來看，美國正在使其他國家望塵莫及。

Start with the familiar measure of economic success: gdp. In 1990 America accounted for a quarter of the world’s output, at market exchange rates. Thirty years on, that share is almost unchanged, even as China has gained economic clout. America’s dominance of the rich world is startling. Today it accounts for 58% of the g7’s gdp, compared with 40% in 1990. Adjusted for purchasing power, only those in über-rich petrostates and financial hubs enjoy a higher income per person. Average incomes have grown much faster than in western Europe or Japan. Also adjusted for purchasing power, they exceed $50,000 in Mississippi, America’s poorest state—higher than in France.

先從我們熟悉的衡量經濟成功的指標GDP說起。1990年，按市場匯率計算，美國占世界產量的四分之一。30年過去了，盡管中國的經濟影響力有所增強，但這一份額幾乎沒有變化。美國在發達世界的主導地位令人吃驚。目前，美國占七國集團GDP的58%，而1990年這一比例為40%。經過購買力調整后，只有非常富裕的石油國家和金融中心的人均收入更高。美國平均收入的增速比西歐和日本快得多。在美國最貧窮的密西西比州，經過購買力調整后的平均收入超過5萬美元——比法國還要高。

The record is as impressive for many of the ingredients of growth. America has nearly a third more workers than in 1990, compared with a tenth in western Europe and Japan. And, perhaps surprisingly, more of them have graduate and postgraduate degrees. True, Americans work more hours on average than Europeans and the Japanese. But they are significantly more productive than both.

許多增長要素的表現同樣令人贊嘆。與1990年相比，美國的勞動力增加了近三分之一，而西歐和日本僅增加了十分之一。有些人也許想不到，他們中更多的人擁有研究生學位。沒錯，美國人的平均工作時間多于歐洲人和日本人，但他們的工作效率比兩者都高得多。

American firms own more than a fifth of patents registered abroad, more than China and Germany put together. All of the five biggest corporate sources of research and development(r&d) are American; in the past year they have spent $200bn. Consumers everywhere have benefited from their innovations in everything from the laptop and the iPhone to artificial-intelligence chatbots. Investors who put $100 into the s&p 500 in 1990 would have more than $2,000 today, four times what they would have earned had they invested elsewhere in the rich world.

美國公司擁有超過五分之一的國際注冊專利，超過了中國和德國的總和。全球五大研發企業都來自美國；在過去的一年里，他們斥資2000億美元。從筆記本電腦、蘋果手機到人工智能聊天機器人，世界各地的消費者都從他們的創新中受益。
1990年，如果投資者向標普500指數中的企業投資100美元，現在會增值到2000多美元，投資收益相當于其他發達國家的四倍。

One retort to this could be that Americans trade higher incomes for less generous safety-nets. America’s spending on social benefits, as a share of gdp, is indeed a great deal stingier than other countries’. But those benefits have become more European and, as the economy has grown, they have grown even faster. Tax credits for workers and children have become more generous. Health insurance for the poorest has expanded, notably under President Barack Obama. In 1979 means-tested benefits amounted to a third of the poorest Americans’ pre-tax income; by 2019 these came to two-thirds. Thanks to this, incomes for America’s poorest fifth have risen in real terms by 74% since 1990, much more than in Britain.

有一種反駁觀點可能認為，美國人的高收入并沒有換來慷慨的社會保障。從占GDP的比重來看，美國在社會福利上的支出確實比其他國家吝嗇得多。但美國社會福利已經趨向于歐洲化，而且隨著經濟的增長，社會福利的增長加快。工人和兒童享受的稅收抵免幅度增大。針對最貧困人口的醫療保險覆蓋范圍已經擴大，尤其是在巴拉克·奧巴馬總統任內。1979年，資產測查補助（means-tested benefits）占美國最貧困人口稅前收入的三分之一；到2019年，這一比例上升到三分之二。正因如此，自1990年以來，美國最貧困的五分之一人口的實際收入增長了74%，遠高于英國。

For the world as a whole, America’s outperformance says much about how to grow. One lesson is that size matters. America has the benefit of a large consumer market over which to spread the costs of r&d, and a deep capital market from which to raise finance. Only China, and perhaps one day India, can boast of purchasing power at such scale. Other countries have sought to mimic it. But even those in Europe, which have got the closest, have struggled to become a true single market. Differences in bankruptcy laws and contractual terms, together with a variety of regulatory barriers, prevent bankers, accountants and architects from touting services across borders.

對于全世界而言，美國經濟的優異表現突顯了如何促進增長。其中一條經驗是規模很重要。美國的優勢是利用龐大的消費市場來分擔研發成本，利用雄厚的資本市場來籌集資金。只有中國，可能有朝一日還有印度，可以炫耀如此巨大的購買力。其他國家爭相效仿，但即使是情況最接近美國的歐洲國家，也很難成為真正的單一市場。破產法與合同條款上的差異，再加上各種監管障礙，阻礙了銀行家、會計師、建筑師跨境推銷他們的服務。

The size and the quality of the workforce matters, too. America was blessed with a younger population and a higher fertility rate than other rich countries. That may not be easily remedied elsewhere, but countries can at least take inspiration from America’s high share of immigrants, who in 2021 made up 17% of its workforce, compared with less than 3% in ageing Japan.

勞動力的規模和質量也很重要。相比其他發達國家，美國擁有更年輕的人口和更高的生育率。這可能是其他國家不易解決的，但至少可以從美國高比例的移民中得到啟發。2021年，美國移民占勞動力的17%，而在老齡化的日本，這一比例不到3%。

Another lesson is the value of dynamism. Starting a business is easy in America, as is restructuring it through bankruptcy. The flexibility of the labour market helps employment adapt to shifting patterns of demand. Already many of the workers in America who were laid off from Alphabet and other tech firms at the start of the year are applying their sought-after skills elsewhere, or setting up their own businesses. In continental Europe, by contrast, tech firms are still negotiating lay-offs, and may think twice about hiring there in future.

另一條經驗是活力的價值。在美國，創辦企業和破產重組都很容易。勞動力市場的靈活性有助于就業適應需求模式的變化。在今年年初被Alphabet和其他科技公司解雇的美國工人中，許多人正在其他領域施展吃香的技能，或者創辦自己的企業。相比之下在歐洲大陸，科技公司仍在就裁員進行談判，未來在雇傭員工時可能會三思而行。

Americans should find the economy’s performance reassuring. If history is a guide, living standards will continue to go up for the next generation, even as the country bears the costs of decarbonising the economy. Yet, resilient as the growth record has been, there are shadows. The middle class has seen its post-tax incomes rise by less than those of both the poorest and the richest. A group of people have fallen into hard times. The share of prime-age American men who are not in work has been rising for years and is higher than in Britain, France and Germany. And life expectancy in America lags shamefully behind others in the rich world, mainly on account of too many younger people dying from drug overdoses and gun violence. Tackling such problems should be easier when the economy as a whole is growing. But America’s poisonous politics are no help.

美國人應該會覺得經濟表現令人放心。如果以史為鑒，盡管美國要承擔經濟脫碳的成本，但下一代人的生活水平還將繼續提高。但是，盡管經濟增長一直很有韌性，但也有陰影。中產階級的稅后收入的漲幅低于最貧困和最富裕的階層。有一個群體陷入了困境，美國青壯年男性的失業比例逐年攀升，高于英國、法國和德國。美國人的預期壽命恥辱地落后于其他發達國家，主要原因是死于吸毒過量和槍支暴力的年輕人太多了。當經濟整體增長時，解決這些問題應該比較容易，但美國有毒的政治于事無補。

In addition, the more that Americans think their economy is a problem in need of fixing, the more likely their politicians are to mess up the next 30 years. Although America’s openness brought prosperity for its firms and its consumers, both Mr Trump and Mr Biden have turned to protectionism and the politics of immigration have become toxic. Subsidies could boost investment in deprived areas in the short term, but risk dulling market incentives to innovate. In the long run they will also entrench wasteful and distorting lobbying. The rise of China and the need to fight climate change both confront America with fresh challenges. All the more reason, then, to remember what has powered its long and successful run.

另外，美國人越是認為經濟是一個有待于解決的難題，美國政客就越有可能把未來30年搞砸。盡管美國的開放給企業和消費者帶來了繁榮，但特朗普和拜登轉向了保護主義，移民政治已經變得有毒。補貼在短期內也許能促進貧困地區的投資，但可能削弱市場對創新的激勵。從長遠來看，補貼還會使浪費和扭曲的游說變得根深蒂固。中國的崛起和應對氣候變化都給美國帶來了新的挑戰。因此我們更有理由記住，美國的長期繁榮靠的是什么。