為什么你認為金磚協議會損害美元?金磚的目的難道不是團結協力避免金磚各國的貨幣貶值嗎?
Why do you think the BRICS agreement will hurt the US dollar? Isn''t its main purpose to come together to prevent the sinking of their own currency?
譯文簡介
網友:金磚組織的主要目的不是要傷害任何人!“金磚五國”的宗旨是在平等基礎上開展國際合作。問題是,金磚國家將在國際貿易中實施多國一攬子貨幣的理念,這與美元的主導地位不相容,美元將因此受到傷害.......
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原創翻譯:龍騰網 http://www.minocquamortgage.com 轉載請注明出處
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BRIKS does not have the main purpose to hurt anyone!
The main purpose of the BRIKS is world cooperation on the basis of equality.
Problem is that BRICS will implement into international trade ideas of a multinational currency basket that is not compatible with the dollar domination and as a result dollar will be hurt.
Just think about it. Why would anyone want to trade in dollars and paid interest and surcharges in converting their own currency into dollars when they will be able to pay in their own currency without the necessity to pay any surcharges at all?
金磚組織的主要目的不是要傷害任何人!“金磚五國”的宗旨是在平等基礎上開展國際合作。
問題是,金磚國家將在國際貿易中實施多國一攬子貨幣的理念,這與美元的主導地位不相容,美元將因此受到傷害。
想想看。當他們可以用自己的貨幣支付而不需要支付任何附加費時,為什么有人想用美元交易并支付利息和附加費將自己的貨幣兌換成美元呢?
American banks will lose income on international services if BRICS stop trading in US$ and use their agreed-upon currencies instead. US creditors are dum their US treasury bonds, making it more expensive for the US government to borrow. US Federal fiscal interest expenses will soon top $1T. The SWIFT system will no longer be a weapon to subjugate rival countries.
如果金磚國家不再用美元進行交易,開始使用各自商定的貨幣,美國的銀行會失去國際業務的收入。美國債權人正在拋售手中的美國國債,美國政府的借貸成本因此上升。美國聯邦財政利息支出很快就將超過1萬億美元。SWIFT系統不再是控制對手國家的武器。
PC Yu
haha. The sinking of their currency (many times) is caused by US monetary policy. That is why they want to get rid of USD & SWIFT system.
Before 2023, USA designed a global monetary cycle. The cycle starts with printing US money & ends with US money flowing back to USA. So-called sucking foreign capital to USA.
This scheme works on one condition: USA has CREDIBILITY.
Today, no country trusts USA. Hence, the entire world incl US allies is getting rid of US dollar ie de-dollarization. What has USA done?
哈哈。他們的貨幣多次貶值是美國的貨幣政策造成的,因此他們想要繞過美元和SWIFT系統。
在2023年之前,美國設計了一個全球貨幣周期。這個周期從美國大量印鈔開始,以美金回流美國為終。這就是所謂的吸引外國資本進入美國。
這個計劃有一個前提條件:美國的國家信用。
但今天,沒有國家愿意信任美國。包括美國盟友在內的整個世界都在拋棄美元,這就是去美元化。美國做了什么?
Because of Ukraine war & western sanction, Russia is the 1st one to 100% dedollarize, dump all US debts (buy gold) & left SWIFT. (Hence, Russia is not affected by the current US financial crisis.)
1、美國通過SWIFT隨意制裁其他國家。因此,金磚國家和上海合作組織建立了一個新的銀行交易系統來取代SWIFT。(美國制裁了600家中國企業。美國還制裁了所有在北溪2號管道遭到破壞之前涉及的公司. ...美國想要阻止地球旋轉)
由于烏克蘭戰爭和西方國家的制裁,俄羅斯是第一個100%去美元化、拋售所有美國債務(購買黃金)并棄用SWIFT的國家。(正因如此,俄羅斯沒有受到當前美國金融危機的影響。)
USA also seized from private Russian oligarch (again in name of Ukraine war). Against law. (UK also robbed Russian oligarch)
USA, against law, forces Swiss bank to disclose client's info -> Foreign clients all left Swiss bank. (Swiss government also lost their neutrality.)
2、美國隨意扣押俄羅斯(以烏克蘭戰爭的名義)和阿富汗(以911的名義)存在瑞士銀行的資產。持有美元不再有保障了。
美國還強占了俄羅斯寡頭手中的私人財富(還是以烏克蘭戰爭的名義)。絲毫不顧忌法律,英國也搶劫了俄羅斯寡頭。
美國違反法律,迫使瑞士銀行披露儲戶信息->外國客戶紛紛拋棄了瑞士銀行。(瑞士政府也失去了中立立場) 。
Hence, the world eg Saudi, France, Germany & 13+ countries dumps US debts. In trading, they accept regional currency instead of US dollar.
That is, US monetary hegemony is CRUMBLING.
美國對其他國家金融市場的政治干預在整個西方產生了連鎖反應。
因此,沙特、法國、德國等13個國家紛紛拋售美國國債。他們接受地區貨幣而非美元來結算貿易貨款。
綜上,美國的貨幣霸權正在崩塌瓦解。
4, Due to loss of credibility, USA cant suck foreign capital in 2023. Then USA must use US $ to buy back US debts.
But ... since 2022, USA has been increasing interest rate. Violently -> it will cost USA more to buy back US debts -> add pressure to US economy.
In the past, the capital flow is 1-way to USA. In 2023, it is N-way to other countries eg China, Singapore etc.
3、美國不負責任地印鈔,收割其他國家的經濟。全世界都決心推番美國的貨幣霸權。
4、由于失去國家信用,美國在2023年無法吸收外資。那么美國必須用美元回購美國國債。
但是…自2022年以來,美國一直在加息。美國需要花費更多的錢來回購美國國債,這對美國經濟是雪上加霜。
過去資本是單向流入美國的。但2023年,資本流入了中國、新加坡等其他國家。
原創翻譯:龍騰網 http://www.minocquamortgage.com 轉載請注明出處
If USA falls into economic crisis in 2023, it starts with money printing -> contributing to inflation to 6%.
No individual can live on unlimited debts; they may end up ROBBING others. So is a country.
結論
如果美國在2023年陷入經濟危機,開始印鈔——>將導致6%的通貨膨脹。
沒有人能靠不加控制的債務度日;他們最終可能會鋌而走險,搶劫別人。一個國家也是如此。
The Brics agreement is not going to hurt the US dollar. The BRICS agreement still has only a few members China, Russia, South Africa, India, and Brazil to which might recently be added Egypt, UAE, Bangladesh, and probably Saudi Arabia and Iran. Though other countries are lured to become members of the fata morgana of a new common currency, many countries can or will not join them.
Most Saharan and Sub-Saharan countries are too poor or are unable to join (see the recently failed attempt of Tunesia to become a member of Brics) and the same can be said for many Latin American countries and countries from Asia. They are very much dependent upon the balance of payments aid from the IMF, and project aid from Worldbank and the different development banks in Latin America, Asia, and Eastern Europe.
Others already have quite some trading commitments with the RCEP having 15 member countries (among which Japan, Indonesia, Malaysia, Australia, New Zealand, and the Philippines) together accounting for about 30% of global GDP. These countries (apart from China which is also a member of the BRICS ) have many relations with the European unx and the US and are not likely to be interested in a new common currency largely influenced by Russia and China. It remains to be seen which countries from Latin America will follow Brazil to becoming a BRICS member.
Lastly, with a common BRICS currency, it is very uncertain that private investors from the industrialized world will provide much risk and debt capital.
金磚五國的協議不會損害美元。金磚國家協議仍然只有幾個成員國——中國、俄羅斯、南非、印度和巴西,最近可能會加入埃及、阿聯酋、孟加拉國,可能還有沙特阿拉伯和伊朗。盡管其他國家被吸引成為新共同貨幣的成員國,但許多國家可能無法或不會加入他們。
大多數撒哈拉以南非洲國家的經濟太過貧困或無法加入金磚組織(例如突尼斯最近嘗試加入 但未成功),許多拉美國家和亞洲國家也是如此。他們非常依賴國際貨幣基金組織的國際收支援助,以及世界銀行和拉丁美洲、亞洲和東歐的不同開發銀行的項目援助。
其他國家已經與RCEP有相當多的貿易承諾,RCEP有15個成員國(其中包括日本、印度尼西亞、馬來西亞、澳大利亞、新西蘭和菲律賓),占全球GDP的30%左右。這些國家(除了同為金磚國家成員的中國)與歐盟和美國有很多關系,不可能對主要受俄羅斯和中國影響的新共同貨幣感興趣。還有哪些拉美國家會跟隨巴西成為金磚國家,還有待觀察。
最后,在金磚國家統一貨幣的情況下,工業化國家的私人投資者是否會提供大量風險和債務資本,這是非常不確定的。
BRICS is the acronym of 5 leading emerging economies - Brazil, Russia, India, China (the 4 original members), and South Africa, which joined later. The aim is to promote economic development and cooperation, and to promote peace and security.
It may be seen as related to Shanghai Cooperation Organisation (SCO), a Eurasian organisation, whose aims are political, economic, international security, and defence cooperation. It is the world’s largest regional organisation. Members are China, Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Russia, Tajikistan (the original Shanghai 5) and India, Pakistan, Tajikistan, Uzbekistan, which joined later.
金磚國家是5個主要新興經濟體的縮寫,分別是4個創始成員國巴西、俄羅斯、印度、中國和后來加入的南非,金磚組織的目的是促進經濟發展與合作,促進和平與安全。
金磚與上海合作組織(上合組織)息息相關,上合組織是一個歐亞組織,旨在推動政治、經濟、國際安全和防務合作。上合組織是世界上最大的區域組織,成員國包括中國、哈薩克斯坦、吉爾吉斯斯坦、俄羅斯、塔吉克斯坦(最初的上海五國)以及后來加入的印度、巴基斯坦、塔吉克斯坦和烏茲別克斯坦。
金磚也可視為“一帶一路”的相關組織,“一帶一路”是由中國提出,并于2013年在哈薩克斯坦正式啟動的。參與國已從成立之初的約70個增加到目前的149個,遍布全球,包括許多歐洲國家?!耙粠б宦贰钡哪繕耸峭ㄟ^貿易和工業化來發展經濟,主要發展基礎設施和互聯互通。中國是主要的貸款人。世界銀行研究估計,“一帶一路”可帶動沿線國家貿易增長4.1%,貿易成本下降1.1%至2.2%,GDP增長2.6%至3.9%??偛课挥趥惗氐慕洕c商業研究中心表示,“一帶一路”能減少世界貿易的摩擦,并預計到2040年,全球GDP每年將增加7.1萬億美元。
原創翻譯:龍騰網 http://www.minocquamortgage.com 轉載請注明出處
美元是美國用來威脅或制裁其他國家的強力政策工具。由于烏克蘭戰爭,美國對俄羅斯實施了史無前例的制裁——凍結了俄羅斯在美國和包含歐盟、英國和瑞士在內的海外資產,禁止俄羅斯使用總部位于比利時的金融信息服務機構SWIFT。美國一心想讓俄羅斯經濟和盧布崩潰。伊朗和委內瑞拉也因美國的制裁而遭受重創。美國甚至凍結了阿富汗100億美元的資金,阿富汗是一個非常貧窮的國家,民眾飽受饑餓之苦??傊?,美國毫無道德廉恥地用美元這個工具給其他國家制造各種麻煩。
對于這個問題
(1) 金磚國家本身與美元無關。但因為美國用美元給世界各地制造了重重困難,很多國家呼吁金磚國家提供美元以外的選擇。俄羅斯遭受的損失最為嚴重,遭受了制裁,因此最有資格制定某項方案。這就是俄羅斯正在和中國合作的金磚國家貨幣
原創翻譯:龍騰網 http://www.minocquamortgage.com 轉載請注明出處
Without doubt, it will hurt the US$ and the US as well. Pay attention to the end of the dominance of the US$ in international finance and central banks’ reserves.
簡而言之,美國自己才是迫使金磚國家用其他選擇代替美元的原因。同樣,這也是人民幣得到越來越廣泛使用的原因。各國都不愿意屈服于美國的支配、忍受美元的桎梏。
毋庸置疑,這會對美元和美國造成打擊。我們要留心美元在國際金融和各國央行儲備中的主導地位的終結。
(2) 不,金磚國家的目的不是支撐成員國的貨幣。他們的貨幣并沒有發生貶值。你也許發現了,美國自認為是所有世界事務的仲裁人,每年都會公布他們所謂的通過操縱本國貨幣來促進出口的國家名單,中國經常榜上有名。
$10 billion is nothing to America but is a fortune to Afghanistan. America stole the money just to spite Afghanistan, because of their shambolic departure which the world witnessed
100億美元對美國來說不算什么,但對阿富汗來說卻是一筆財富。美國偷錢只是為了報復阿富汗,因為全世界都目睹了他們混亂的撤離
The answer to the second part of the above question is NO.
The acronym BRICS describe the world's fastest-growing economies comprising Brazil, Russia, India, China, South Africa. They are setting themselves up as an alternative to exsting international financial and political forums.
Since its formation on 16 June 2009, it has blossomed with other countries waiting to join in, viz. Turkey, Mexco, Indonesia, Argentina, Saudi Arabia, the UAE, Egypt and a number of other African countries.
對于上述問題第二部分的答案,是大寫的“不是”。
金磚五國是世界上增長最快的經濟體,成員國有巴西、俄羅斯、印度、中國和南非。它們正逐步崛起為當前國際金融和政治論壇的替代品。
自2009年6月16日成立以來,土耳其、墨西哥、印度尼西亞、阿根廷、沙特阿拉伯、阿聯酋、埃及和其他一些非洲國家也申請加入該組織。
金磚五國的組建肯定會損害美元作為世界儲備貨幣的地位,和美元競爭世界貿易貨幣的地位。金磚國家成立的初衷是否旨在挑戰美元霸權尚不清楚,但因烏克蘭戰爭的爆發,目前對美元的影響悄悄放大了,并因美國對俄羅斯的制裁而加速崛起。
美國的石油美元和SWIFT銀行體系的破裂,是美國對俄羅斯制裁的直接結果,也對西方造成了連帶損害。這個話題引發了后備媒體(相對于西方的主流媒體而言)對美國經濟不利影響的大量關注。
We will wait to see if it does hurt the US dollar. The truth is, the global demand for dollars is very high given the number one commodity in the world is energy and the vast majority of energy contracts globally are denominated in dollars. Meaning energy purchasers have to buy dollars to use for the energy trade. Since the initial BRICS members are some of the largest both energy producers (Russia and Brazil) and energy purchasers (China and India) there is the potential that fewer dollars will be needed globally for trade purposes. This could impact demand for dollars which means those dollars would relocate to the US driving up dollar supply, so reducing the price of dollars (meaning reduced purchasing power).
我們拭目以待,看看它會不會損害美元。事實是,全球對美元的需求非常高,因為世界頭號大宗商品是能源,而全球絕大多數的能源合同都還是以美元計價的。
這意味著能源購買國必須購買美元用于能源交易。最初的金磚成員國既是最大的能源生產國(俄羅斯和巴西),也是最大的能源進口國(中國和印度),因此全球貿易所需的美元可能會減少。這可能會影響全球對美元的總體需求,這意味著這些美元將重新流向美國,從而加大美元供應,壓低美元價格(意味著美元購買力下降)。
The BRICS (Brazil, Russia, India, China, and South Africa) agreement is an intergovernmental organization that aims to enhance economic cooperation among its member countries. One of the primary goals of the BRICS is to create a more multipolar global economy, which means reducing the dominance of the US dollar as the world's reserve currency and promoting the use of other currencies, such as the Chinese yuan.
The BRICS countries have been taking steps to reduce their reliance on the US dollar by increasing trade in their local currencies and setting up their own financial institutions, such as the New Development Bank (NDB), which aims to fund infrastructure projects in developing countries.
As the BRICS countries continue to strengthen their economic ties and increase their use of alternative currencies, such as the yuan, it could lead to a reduction in demand for the US dollar. This could potentially weaken the US dollar's position as the world's reserve currency, as it may become less necessary for international trade and investment.
However, it's important to note that the US dollar remains the dominant reserve currency in the world, and any significant changes to its position would likely take time and depend on a variety of economic and geopolitical factors.
金磚國家(巴西、俄羅斯、印度、中國和南非)協議是一個政府間組織,旨在加強成員國之間的經濟合作。金磚國家的主要目標之一是建立一個更加多極化的全球經濟,這意味著減少美元作為世界儲備貨幣的主導地位,并促進人民幣等其他貨幣的使用。
金磚國家一直在采取措施,通過增加本幣貿易和建立自己的金融機構,如旨在為發展中國家的基礎設施項目提供資金的新開發銀行(NDB),來減少對美元的依賴。
隨著金磚國家繼續加強經濟聯系,增加對人民幣等替代貨幣的使用,這可能會導致對美元需求的減少。這可能會削弱美元作為世界儲備貨幣的地位,因為它對國際貿易和投資的必要性可能會降低。
然而,值得注意的是,美元仍然是世界上主要的儲備貨幣,任何對其地位的重大變化都可能需要時間,并取決于各種經濟和地緣政治因素。
Well, yes, countries now are getting rid of dollar transactions and streightening their own currency for the sake of economical staibility. The dollar has lost any trust in it, since US has shown that it can illegally sieze dollar assets on their own wish, the same situation happened with Euro. However, Euro was hit way more than Dollar due to US politics against Europe that led to energy cost increase (EU separation with main source of energy - Russia).
I don’t think that BRICS countries are “targetting” dollar on purpose, however the results of these actions for sure will be critical for dollar.
Stopping transactions in dollars would mean the countries will not need dollars anymore for any other purpose than trading with US itself. And because of that countries will start selling off their dollar assets - either for goods from US, or by trading it to other currencies.
There is a good question, does US actually have enogh material goods to trade back for all the dollars other countries are holding?
嗯,是的,現在各個國家正在擺脫美元交易,并為了經濟穩定而讓自己的貨幣升值。美元已經失去了任何信任,因為美國已經表明它可以根據自己的意愿非法扣押美元資產,同樣的情況也發生在歐元身上。然而,由于美國反對歐洲的政治導致能源成本上升(歐盟與主要能源來源俄羅斯分離),歐元受到的打擊遠遠超過美元。
我不認為金磚國家有意針對美元,但這些行動的結果肯定對美元至關重要。
停止使用美元進行交易意味著這些國家不再需要美元用于除了與美國本身的貿易外的任何其他目的。因此,這些國家將開始出售其美元資產——要么從美國購買商品,要么用美元兌換其他貨幣。
有一個好問題,美國真的有足夠的物質商品來交換其他國家持有的所有美元嗎?